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Grain prices bounce back | Thursday, July 21, 2022

The corn and soybean markets were hit hard right at the 8:30 am open and then bounced back as we continue to see very large daily trading ranges. It looks like Russia will tun the gas back on for Europe and this has crude oil and energy prices under pressure. Soybean oil is also lower, but well off the early day lows.

At this hour, September corn is down 11¢ and December corn is 12¢ lower. August soybean futures are down 25¢, November soybeans are 24¢ lower. Wheat futures are mixed, with CBOT wheat up 1¢, KC wheat down 2¢, and Minneapolis wheat 6¢ lower.

I am getting some questions now that are just the opposite of early May (when farmers asked how much higher the grain markets would go and what could turn prices lower). Now the question is when will prices stop going down, and what will signal the bottom.

To signal short term low, prices need to close higher. To signal a longer term low, prices need to close above the two previous weeks’ high. I have two encouraging points on my charts: December corn is holding support at $5.66 and November soybeans are holding support at $13.00 – so far.

In the livestock market today, August hogs are up $1.40 at $116.27, August cattle are up 20¢ at $135.95, and August feeders are up 10¢ at $177.97.

In the outside markets, crude oil is now down $3.20 per barrel. The US stock market has turned lower, with the S&P 500 down 4 points, and the Dow is down 186 points.

Grain prices remain under pressure: 8:51 am

As funds liquidate and weather forecasts look more favorable for crop development starting next week, grain prices remain under pressure. Nearby corn futures are now trading below the January lows, making new lows for the year.

September corn is down 14¢. December corn is down 16¢. August soybeans are trading 21¢ lower, and November soybeans are down 25¢. Wheat futures are 7¢ to 9¢ lower.

On the Dalian Commodity Exchange in China, corn and soybean futures are slightly lower. On the Matif exchange in Europe, wheat futures are 10¢ a bushel higher at $11.30.

The weekly export sales report released today was OK, but I view it as disappointing. I think the lower futures price and lower US dollar will bring back buyers, but it has not happened yet.

Corn exports were just 1.3 million bushels, below what we need to see each week. Soybean sales were 7.5 million bushels, an OK number, but it is not a trend changer. Wheat exports were about as expected at 18.8 million bushels.

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About the Author: Al Kluis has been a commodity advisor and broker since 1976. Kluis is an introducing broker with Wedbush Futures and writes a column, Your Profit, which appears in every issue of Successful Farming magazine. Kluis has published two books on commodities trading and is commonly quoted in major publications including the Wall Street Journal. He is also a featured speaker at commodity conferences nationwide. Kluis is a frequent market analyst for the Linder Farm Radio News Network. A Minnesota farm boy, Kluis was awarded his degree in ag economics from the University of Minnesota in 1974, after which he was executive director of the Minnesota Soybean Association before entering the markets full-time. His family of him still farms in southwest Minnesota, and Kluis enjoys helping with fieldwork when the markets allow.

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